May National Feed Production Analysis: Pig and poultry feed saw significant month-on-month declines, while aquaculture feed grew by nearly 10%.

As of On June 5, based on data reported by feed companies and calculated according to each company's share of the national total output from the previous month, total feed production in May 2020 increased by 1.8% year-on-year but declined by 1.8% compared to the previous month.

Various feed varieties showed year-on-year trends "Three increases and two decreases"—pig feed and aquaculture feed fell by 14.5% and 1.2%, respectively, year-on-year; in contrast, layer feed, broiler feed, and ruminant feed rose by 10.9%, 14.6%, and 6.1%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. On a month-over-month basis, there were mixed trends: broiler and aquaculture feeds increased by 0.8% and 9.8%, respectively, while pig, layer, and ruminant feeds declined by 5.3%, 6.7%, and 8.9%, respectively.

I. Production Status

Table 1. Summary Table of Feed Production for May 2020

Note: Total output (including pet feed)

Table 2. Production Status of Different Feed Varieties in May 2020

Table 3. May 2020 Feed Production by Sub-Category

II. Feed Ingredient Procurement Price Situation

In May, prices of major feed ingredients and additives showed mixed trends. Corn supplies were largely concentrated in the trading sector, leading to rising transportation and storage costs, which pushed corn prices up by 2.5% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, imports of soybeans continued to increase, easing the tight supply situation for soybean meal—resulting in a 4.7% month-on-month decline in soybean meal prices. Prices for rapeseed meal and cottonseed meal also fell slightly, dropping by 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively, compared to the prior month. As aquaculture entered its peak season, demand for fishmeal remained strong, driving a 2.0% month-on-month increase in imported fishmeal prices. Additionally, with new lysine production capacity coming online, market prices experienced a mild downward correction.

Table 4 Average purchase prices of major feed ingredients in May 2020

Table 5 Average purchase prices of major feed additives in May 2020

III. Price Trends of Feed Products

In May, while corn prices rose and major feed ingredients like soybean meal declined, overall compound feed prices increased. Meanwhile, concentrated feeds and premixed feeds mostly saw price decreases. Pig, layer poultry, broiler, and aquaculture compound feed prices rose by 0.5%, 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively, compared to the previous month. In contrast, prices for pig, layer poultry, and broiler concentrated feeds fell by 1.0%, 0.7%, and 1.9%, respectively, month-on-month. Additionally, additive premixed feeds for pigs and layer poultry decreased by 3.0% and 0.7%, respectively, while those for broilers edged up by 0.3% month-on-month. Refer to Tables 6-7 and Figures 4-6 for details.

Table 6 Average National Price of Compound Feed in May 2020

Table 7. National average prices for concentrated feed and additive premixes in May 2020

IV. Characteristics and Analysis of Changes in the Feed Market

In May, total feed production increased by 1.8% year-on-year but declined by 1.8% compared to the previous month. When adjusted for compound feed, production fell by 2.0% year-on-year. From January to May, overall feed output rose by 3.1% compared to the same period last year, with compound feed showing a more modest increase of 1.0% year-on-year. Looking at the trend, February to April saw a noticeable recovery, though May experienced a slight dip. Nonetheless, May’s figures remained higher than the average levels of the past three years. Among the various feed categories, all segments except pig feed continued to exhibit strong growth.

1. Pig feed.

    Overall, From January to May, pig feed production across the country maintained a strong recovery trend. In May, pig feed output increased year-on-year in 13 provinces, regions, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps—excluding Xinjiang, where growth remained steady. Across the board, other provinces and regions saw gains of nearly 20% or more. Notably, major pig-feed-producing provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Liaoning reported year-on-year growth of 38.0%, 29.4%, and 20.9%, respectively, in May. From January to May, pig feed production in 16 provinces, regions, and municipalities (accounting for 51.3% of the total pig feed output) increased year-on-year on a cumulative basis.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, since last year Starting in September, pig feed production shifted from month-on-month declines to growth, posting four consecutive months of increase by December. Since 2020, with the exception of a month-on-month drop in January due to the Lunar New Year holiday, pig feed output rose steadily for three months—from February to April. However, in May, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, declining consumer spending on dining, tourism, and overall household consumption led to weaker pork demand. Additionally, increased imports of imported pork and the release of centrally stored pork reserves pushed pork prices lower in early May, prompting farmers to bring more mature pigs to market. As a result, demand for pig feed contracted during the same period. In May, pig feed production fell by 5.3% compared to the previous month, with declines of 6.9%, 2.1%, and 5.5% observed in weaner pig feed, sow feed, and finishing pig feed, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, however, the decline in pig feed production continued to narrow, dropping from 41.3% in October 2019 to 14.5% by May. Notably, sow feed saw cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.7% from January to May, marking four consecutive months of positive year-over-year expansion. When adjusted for compounded feed formulations, total pig feed output also grew by 7.2% over the same period.

Poultry feed for eggs.

    In 2019, egg and poultry farming continued to enjoy relatively high profitability, prompting farm operators to actively expand their production capacity. As a result, significant amounts of external capital flowed into the sector, driving rapid growth in the overall poultry flock—reaching historically high levels. However, despite the resumption of business operations across regions and the return to school routines, consumer demand for eggs and poultry products has remained far below expectations. Coupled with rising temperatures that have made storage more challenging, egg prices have steadily declined, pushing farms into sustained losses. This has intensified farmers' intentions to cull older birds while sharply reducing their willingness to restock. By May, the average wholesale price of eggs nationwide had fallen to 6.69 yuan per kilogram, down 5.1% from the previous month but plummeting 24.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, egg and poultry feed consumption dipped slightly by 6.7% month-on-month in May, though it still surged 10.9% compared to the same period last year—a slowdown from earlier growth rates. From January to May 2020, total feed consumption for egg and poultry production rose by 19.4% year-on-year. Notably, feed usage for laying ducks saw a substantial increase of 30.9%, while feed for laying hens grew by 13.5% over the same period.

Meat and poultry feed.

    As the pace of meat and poultry farming returns to normal, both the number of birds in stock and supply levels have rapidly rebounded to pre-COVID-19 highs. However, sluggish consumer demand for poultry meat, coupled with persistently high but declining pork prices, has weighed on chicken product prices, leading to losses in farming profitability. As a result, farmers are becoming less eager to restock, and the growth in feed demand has slowed significantly. In May, meat and poultry feed production increased by 14.6% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month. While growth slowed slightly compared to the previous month, it remained at a relatively high level seen since the second half of 2019. From January to May 2020, cumulative meat and poultry feed production rose by 22.5% year-on-year, with broiler and meat duck feed growing by 19.6% and 25.6%, respectively, compared to the same period last year.

Aquaculture feed 。

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the normal pace of water product harvesting from ponds, transportation, and consumption has been disrupted. After the production cycle was delayed in the new 2020 season, combined with outbreaks of fish diseases in regions like Jiangsu and Zhejiang, demand for aquatic feed in May fell short of expectations and declined slightly compared to the previous year. In May, aquatic feed sales dropped by 1.2% year-on-year. However, thanks to the "pressure ponds" built during February and March, cumulative aquatic feed sales from January to May still surged by 15.2% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, as temperatures gradually warmed up in May, the aquaculture industry experienced a rapid seasonal recovery, driving a month-on-month increase of 9.8% in aquatic feed consumption.

Ruminant feed.

    In May, the average wholesale price of beef nationwide was 70.95 yuan/kg, down 0.7% from the previous month but up 17.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the average price of mutton reached 66.85 yuan/kg, declining 0.8% month-on-month while still growing 10.9% compared to the same period last year. Beef and mutton prices have remained volatile at relatively high levels, supporting strong profitability for cattle and sheep farmers. As a result, herd sizes are recovering and expanding. In May, demand for ruminant feed increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Additionally, early stockpiling ahead of the May Day holiday led to a seasonal slowdown in dairy cow production, reducing feed requirements. Coupled with warmer weather and an improved supply of forage grasses, ruminant feed consumption fell by 8.9% month-on-month. From January to May 2020, ruminant feed production grew by 10.4% year-on-year. Specifically, dairy cow feed rose by 3.2%, beef cattle feed surged by 27.1%, and mutton feed climbed by 11.1% over the same period.

Note: Feed production data, raw material purchase prices, and feed product prices are as of the latest available date. As of June 5, data from 7,115 identical feed companies—including pet feed production—have been calculated. The final national figures will be officially released annually.

Source: Oilseed Meal Noodles