May 2020 Poultry Market Supply, Demand, and Price Analysis: Poultry Prices Continue to Decline
Release date:
2020-05-26
The poultry market currently enjoys ample supply. As businesses and institutions resume operations in an orderly manner, and schools reopen, consumer demand is gradually recovering. The upcoming "May Day" holiday is expected to boost spending, though the overall increase will remain limited. Consequently, poultry prices are forecast to stay relatively weak in the short term.
The poultry market supply remains ample, and as businesses and institutions resume operations in an orderly manner while schools reopen, consumer demand is gradually recovering. The upcoming "May Day" holiday is expected to boost consumption, though the overall increase will likely be limited. As a result, poultry prices are forecast to remain relatively weak in the short term.
I. Poultry prices continue to decline
The pace of product movement in the consumer market has slowed, leading to low purchasing enthusiasm among traders and a buildup of inventory at slaughterhouses. As a result of weak consumer demand, poultry prices continue to decline. In April, the average price of live chickens at markets was 19.81 yuan per kilogram, down 1.1% from the previous month but up 1.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the average price of white-feathered broilers fell by 1.7% month-on-month to 22.40 yuan per kilogram, yet surged 11.6% compared to the same period last year. Looking at weekly price trends, poultry prices in April were predominantly declining. Live chicken prices fluctuated downward, while white-feathered broiler prices experienced five consecutive weeks of declines. By the fifth week of April, the average price of live chickens dropped to 19.62 yuan per kilogram, a monthly decrease of 0.9%, while the average price of white-feathered broilers fell further to 22.16 yuan per kilogram, down 0.7% from the previous week. Regionally, poultry prices across China showed mixed trends in the fifth week of April, with declines dominating most areas. Prices fell most sharply in East China and Northeast China, where live chicken and white-feathered broiler prices dropped by 2.4% and 1.2%, respectively, compared to the prior week. Prices also softened significantly in Central and South China, with live chicken and white-feathered broiler prices slipping by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, and 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. Prices saw smaller declines in Southwest, Northwest, and North China regions.
II. Poultry Meat Imports Surge in March
According to customs statistics, in March, poultry meat imports reached 131,700 tons, up 65.4% from the previous month and a remarkable 100% increase year-on-year. The value of these imports amounted to $330 million, rising 56.1% month-on-month and surging 110% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, poultry meat exports totaled 13,700 tons, representing a 12.2% rise from the prior month but a 19.8% decline year-on-year. Export revenues stood at $39.8364 million, climbing 1.7% month-on-month while falling 18.8% year-on-year. From January to March cumulatively, poultry meat imports surged by 97.0% year-on-year, reaching 293,800 tons, with import values soaring by 120% to $763 million. On the export side, shipments totaled 38,900 tons, marking a 12.8% drop compared to the same period last year, though export revenues dipped slightly by 13.5% to $113 million. The primary sources of imported poultry meat were Brazil (accounting for 60.2% of total imports), Russia (11.5%), Argentina (9.6%), Thailand (8.9%), and the United States (3.7%). Meanwhile, exports were predominantly directed toward Hong Kong and Macao in China, as well as Malaysia, Mongolia, Bahrain, and North Korea—countries that together accounted for 96.5% of total exports during this period.
3. Poultry prices are expected to remain weak in the near term.
On the production front, according to monitoring by the Poultry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, chick placements for white-feathered broilers, white-feathered ducks, and yellow-feathered broilers saw a slight increase in April, ensuring ample market supply. On the consumption side, with the steady resumption of work, production, and schooling, demand from group catering and foodservice sectors is gradually recovering—but overall growth remains relatively limited. Taken together, it is expected that poultry meat prices will likely remain weak in the near term.
Source: China Business Intelligence Network
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