October National Poultry Market Supply, Demand, and Price Analysis: Poultry Prices Edge Higher from Low Levels

Additionally, countries like Brazil, Europe, the U.S., and Thailand—major importers of Chinese poultry meat—have not been able to keep up with demand in a timely manner, leading to a supply shortage of chicken in producing nations. This, in turn, is indirectly contributing to an upward trend in China’s poultry meat prices during the fourth quarter.

On October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic performance data for the first three quarters of 2021. During this period, the output of pork, beef, lamb, and poultry reached 64.28 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. Among them, the production of pork, mutton, beef, and poultry increased by 38.0%, 5.3%, 3.9%, and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively. ; Milk production increased by 8.0% year-on-year, while poultry and egg production declined by 2.4%. By the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory stood at 437.64 million head, up 18.2% from the same period last year. Among them, the number of breeding sows reached 44.59 million, representing a growth of 16.7%. Data shows that the increase in livestock and poultry production during the first three quarters led to a supply-demand imbalance, causing poultry meat prices to decline across the board.

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

In September, reduced production capacity among earlier-stage farm operators impacted supply, while poultry consumption remained relatively stable, leading to a slight increase in prices. In September, the average market price for live chickens was 19.26 yuan per kilogram, up 0.4% from the previous month but down 2.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the average market price for white-feathered broilers stood at 21.48 yuan per kilogram, rising 0.4% month-on-month but falling 2.0% compared to the same period last year.

Looking at weekly prices, poultry meat prices in September showed slight fluctuations. The market price of whole dressed chickens remained largely stable, while live chicken prices continued their upward trend from August during the first week—though the increase was minimal, rising just 0.1% compared to the previous week. However, prices began to decline slightly in the second and third weeks. By the fourth week of September, the market price for live chickens stood at 19.25 yuan per kilogram, up 0.1% from the prior week, while whole dressed chickens fetched 21.51 yuan per kilogram, marking a 0.2% rise over the same period. From a farming profitability perspective, white-feathered broiler chickens initially turned slightly profitable in the first week, but by the second week, they started incurring losses, with the loss margin steadily widening. By the fourth week, each bird was losing more than 2.5 yuan.

Reason: First, market prices for outgoing poultry have declined slightly. Second, chick prices for broiler chickens sold that week remained high. Third, rising soybean meal prices have pushed up feed costs.

According to customs statistics, in August, poultry meat imports totaled 134,000 tons, down 10.0% from the previous month and 10.8% year-on-year. The value of these imports reached $343 million, declining 5.5% month-on-month but rising 5.0% year-on-year. Meanwhile, exports amounted to 21,400 tons, increasing by 18.7% compared to the prior month and surging 27.2% year-on-year, with export revenues climbing to $603 million—up a remarkable 10.4-fold month-on-month and 12.9-fold year-on-year. From January to August cumulatively, imports stood at 966,100 tons, representing a 2.7% decline year-on-year, while import value fell by 6.4% to $2.176 billion. On the export side, shipments totaled 143,200 tons, marking a 15.5% increase compared to the same period last year, with export revenues soaring by 20.1% to $409 million. In August, Brazil, the United States, Russia, Thailand, and Argentina remained China’s top five poultry meat import sources, with Brazil accounting for an increased share of 50.7% of total imports. Meanwhile, the average import price for poultry meat in August was $2,555 per ton, up 5.0% from the previous month and 17.7% higher than the same period last year. Export prices averaged $2,932 per ton, up 1.4% month-on-month and 14.6% year-on-year.

On the production front, due to the proactive reduction in broiler chick output by hatcheries earlier on, farmers have cut back on restocking their flocks. As a result, the number of commercial broilers being sent to market will continue to decline, leading to a drop in poultry supply.

On the consumption side, pork prices remain low, while demand for poultry as a substitute remains limited. On the cost front, prices of corn—the primary feed ingredient—have slightly declined.

Based on a comprehensive assessment, Poultry supplies are shrinking, while demand is expected to rise, leading to a slight price increase in the short term.

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, China Business Intelligence Network, International Livestock Network