Weight-lifting boost: These 3 types of ducklings are starting to rise in price—will this be a fleeting trend, or has a turning point arrived?

The number of breeding sows in stock is a key indicator for the hog industry, influencing the long-term trend of live pig supply and serving as a reliable barometer for predicting future pork prices. As clearly illustrated in the chart above, the hog industry has experienced significant fluctuations in production capacity—

Looking back at the Two Sessions, poultry was mentioned only a handful of times—far fewer compared to pigs, which continued to steal the spotlight. Of course, while both share the character "feng"—meaning "wind" or "promotion"—their meanings and connotations differ significantly. This year, the trend is increasingly highlighting a sense of "sealing" or "closure."

·   The cyclical giant wave, beginning in 2018

Industry Watch: The golden period driven by African swine fever has come to an end—now the poultry industry faces a critical crisis!

Pigs ensure food security for the nation; for a long time, China has been the world's largest producer and consumer of pork. In the simple-minded beliefs of the older generation, "pig" and "meat" were essentially considered synonymous.

Although demand for pork has softened in recent years due to rising household incomes and shifting consumer habits, the meat it occupies in people’s shopping baskets has consistently remained above 50%. On average, this translates to roughly half a pig consumed per person annually. But this situation took a major turn in 2018, Also drifting along with the tide are countless small and medium-sized households, livestock and poultry enterprises, and individual farmers across the country.

Strictly speaking, the outbreak of African swine fever has become the second major shock in the past decade, delivering a profound and widespread impact on the hog industry—and now its effects are spilling over to chickens, ducks, cattle, and sheep as well. Prior to this, since 2015, increasingly stringent environmental policies have already overwhelmed most small- and medium-sized pig farming enterprises, pushing them to the brink of survival amid skyrocketing cost pressures.

From global experience, there are essentially two approaches to controlling African swine fever: biological control and vaccine-based prevention. Since a vaccine remains elusive, biological control emerges as the only viable solution—specifically, measures such as culling, disinfection, harmless disposal of infected animals, and enhancing biosecurity protocols in livestock farming—to effectively manage and prevent the spread of the disease.

Due to national conditions and historical factors, small- to medium-sized farms and individual farmers have always accounted for a significant share of China's domestic pig farming industry, while the country’s overall capacity to prevent and control swine disease outbreaks remains relatively low. Moreover, African swine fever has occurred in China for the first time, characterized by high infection and mortality rates, coupled with limited experience in managing the disease. As a result, within just six months, the outbreak spread across the entire nation, leading to a dramatic decline in production capacity and a sharp drop in the national pig population.

The number of breeding sows in stock is a key indicator for the hog industry, influencing the long-term trend of生猪 supply and serving as a reliable barometer for predicting future pork prices. As clearly illustrated in the chart above, the hog industry has experienced significant fluctuations in production capacity— Described as unprecedented, it's unlikely to be matched by anyone in the future.

· Profits soar tenfold this year! Chickens, ducks, and geese make a dazzling debut.

Chickens, ducks, geese, cattle, and sheep have long eyed pork's dominant position, tirelessly pondering and devising every possible strategy—but despite their efforts, they’ve never quite managed to shake it or significantly boost consumption. Finally, African swine fever has put an end to their ambitions.

Half of the country's livestock industry has already collapsed—African swine fever continues to spread, and the supply of live pigs simply cannot recover anytime soon, not even in the next year or two. As a result, the market share that once belonged to pigs has naturally shifted to chickens, ducks, cattle, and sheep—and even egg prices have skyrocketed.

2019 National Analysis of Meat and Egg Consumption Patterns – China Poultry Network

According to data released earlier this year by the China Animal Husbandry Association, in 2019, China's commercial broiler chickens (white-feathered and yellow-feathered), as well as waterfowl, were marketed in the following quantities: 4.4 billion, 4.9 billion, 4.2 billion , representing year-on-year increases of approximately 500 million, 1 billion, and 1.3 billion birds, respectively—growth rates reaching 12.8%, 25%, and 44.8%. Daily slaughter volumes stood at around 12 million, 13.4 million, and 11.5 million birds, respectively. Poultry has rapidly emerged as a dominant force, now accounting for fully one-third of the nation’s total poultry production.

2019 was a year of happiness—and also a year of wealth creation! The poultry industry, having weathered the environmental crackdown since 2017—regardless of company size, whether raising chickens, ducks, or geese, or where they sit within the industry’s upstream, midstream, or downstream segments—has generally enjoyed a remarkably prosperous year. Meanwhile, amid global uncertainties and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war—and even amid frequent verbal spats that have dominated headlines all year—the soaring demand for poultry products has remained relentless!