The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Around the Dragon Boat Festival, pork prices may see a price surge as pork consumption rises.

Based on the current momentum in production recovery, pig inventories are expected to return to normal levels by June and July this year. Following that, within about four more months, monthly slaughter volumes will gradually rebound to their typical yearly averages. Moving forward, we will continue to simultaneously advance both pig production recovery and African Swine Fever (ASF) prevention and control—driving each initiative forward in tandem. We’ll align closely with our targets for fully restoring production, ensuring accountability at every level, coordinating efforts to implement relevant policies effectively, and steadily boosting herd replenishment. This will help maintain the ongoing recovery momentum and ensure that pig inventories continue to grow. At the same time, we must remain vigilant in ASF防控, rigorously maintaining regular防控 measures across all stages of the supply chain—from farm-to-market. This includes strengthening surveillance, monitoring, quarantine protocols, and regulatory oversight at every step. Nationwide, we’ll pilot a regionalized防控 approach for ASF and other major animal diseases, while also continuing to build disease-free zones and communities. Our goal is to firmly prevent any resurgence of the outbreak. Looking ahead, we’ll explore the establishment of a long-term system for managing pig production capacity. This will involve enhancing monitoring and early warning mechanisms, refining policy frameworks, and stabilizing core production levels. By proactively identifying potential risks and intervening promptly, we aim to avoid extreme fluctuations in both pig production and market prices, ensuring greater stability for the industry. Regarding the performance of the agricultural and rural economy in the first quarter, A press conference will be held, with the following agenda:

1. Corn Market Trend Analysis

Currently, corn prices remain high, significantly impacting industries such as feed processing.

Song Danyang, Deputy Director of the Department of Market and Information Technology: "Corn has a wide range of applications and a long industrial chain, making it a crop whose price fluctuations attract significant public attention. According to our monitoring, the corn market in the first quarter of this year can broadly be divided into two distinct phases:"

The first phase occurred before the Spring Festival, driven primarily by strong demand and tight availability of circulating grain supplies, leading to continuously rising prices.

The second phase occurs after the Spring Festival, when rising temperatures prompt farmers and traders to accelerate grain sales. As a result, market supply temporarily eases, leading to price stabilization and a subsequent decline.

Currently, the purchase price of corn in Northeast and North China stands at approximately 1.35 to 1.4 yuan per jin in the Northeast, while in North China it’s around 1.45 to 1.5 yuan per jin. Although these prices represent a significant increase compared to last year, they’ve only seen a modest rise when measured against the historic peak recorded in 2014. Overall, this recovery-driven price hike is being fueled by growing demand for corn and rising production costs over recent years.

Corn prices have risen moderately, finally enabling corn farmers—who have faced years of losses—to turn a profit. Combined with stable policy support, this has significantly boosted farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation this year, and corn planting acreage is expected to recover noticeably. At the same time, the increase in corn prices has inevitably pushed up feed and livestock production costs downstream. To address this challenge, we are working closely with relevant authorities to ensure both robust grain production and stable feed supplies. This includes boosting the release of excess stored rice and wheat, appropriately expanding imports of corn and its substitutes, and implementing measures to manage and moderate demand effectively. Looking ahead, considering factors such as remaining inventories held by farmers and traders, processing companies’ stockpiles, and import volumes, market supply is projected to remain ample until the new corn harvest hits the market later this year. As a result, there’s little basis for sustained price increases. With the autumn grain harvest soon to enter the market, supply conditions are expected to improve further. Ultimately, China will continue to prioritize ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains, maintaining its commitment to safeguarding food security.

2. Pig Price Analysis

Since January of this year, pork prices have been declining steadily for nearly three months;

Chen Guanghua, Deputy Director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated at the meeting: "In recent months, pork prices have indeed dropped rather rapidly. Currently, pork prices have fallen back to their lowest level since the current round of recovery in hog production capacity."

According to monitoring data, during the third week of April (April 12–18), the national wholesale market price for pork reached 38.96 yuan per kilogram—marking the 12th consecutive week of decline. This represents a year-on-year drop of 27.6%, down 15.26 yuan from the peak price recorded in the third week of January, and a decrease of 20.68 yuan compared to last year’s highest price (the third week of February 2020). However, in recent days, pork prices have experienced a volatile rebound. After hitting a nationwide low of 21.14 yuan per kilogram on April 10, live pig prices have now climbed back up to 23.35 yuan as of today, April 20.

The recent sharp decline in pork prices is primarily due to a significant increase in the number of pigs being sent to market, coupled with a drop in pork consumption following the Spring Festival—two factors that have coincided. Additionally, panic selling by some farmers has created a "stampede effect," further pressuring prices downward. Typically, pork prices follow a seasonal pattern, with demand typically picking up around the Dragon Boat Festival, potentially triggering a price rebound. However, based on current trends in piglet production, it’s estimated that in the second quarter, large-scale pig farms across the country will see a year-on-year increase of 50% in the volume of market-ready fattened pigs. This suggests that, despite the earlier tight supply, the overall market supply will remain ample, making it unlikely for prices to surpass their previous peaks. All in all, the period of most acute pork supply shortages appears to have passed, and going forward, the market is expected to become increasingly well-supplied.

Based on the current momentum in production recovery, pig inventories are expected to return to normal levels by June and July this year. Following that, within about four more months, monthly slaughter volumes will gradually rebound to their typical yearly averages. Moving forward, we will continue to simultaneously advance both pig production recovery and African Swine Fever (ASF) prevention and control—driving each initiative forward in tandem. We’ll align closely with our targets for fully restoring production, ensuring accountability at every level, coordinating efforts to implement relevant policies effectively, and steadily boosting herd replenishment. This will help maintain the ongoing recovery momentum and ensure that pig inventories continue to grow. At the same time, we must remain vigilant in ASF防控, rigorously maintaining regular防控 measures across all stages of the supply chain—from farm-to-market. This includes strengthening surveillance, monitoring, quarantine protocols, and regulatory oversight at every step. Nationwide, we’ll pilot a regionalized防控 approach for ASF and other major animal diseases, while also continuing to build disease-free zones and communities. Our goal is to firmly prevent any resurgence of the outbreak. Looking ahead, we’ll explore the establishment of a long-term system for managing pig production capacity. This will involve enhancing monitoring and early warning mechanisms, refining policy frameworks, and stabilizing core production levels. By proactively identifying potential risks and intervening promptly, we aim to avoid extreme fluctuations in both pig production and market prices, ensuring greater stability for the industry.